![]() ![]() ![]() The following replacement levels were taken by looking at mean points-per-game of the 30th best WR and RB and the 12th best TE and QB from 2021 data. We determine replacement level by the player at that position who should be the worst player who still starts week-in, week-out. Therefore, in all of the following analysis we compute a player’s value by taking their projected points scored and subtracting off the replacement level points scored. So, the proper way to analyze value in fantasy football is to compare one player against an ‘average’ player at the same position. This is the basis for our draft strategy. Thus, we don’t care purely about how much a player scores, but rather how much more your player scores than your opponent’s player at the same position. The goal is to score more points than your opponent every week. The idea is that even though quarterbacks score the most, the difference from the best QB to the 6th best QB is not large enough to warrant spending an early pick on the QB. However, in regular leagues (where you start one quarterback) the first quarterback is rarely drafted before the late second round or early third round. Quarterbacks score the most points in fantasy football. Point Above Replacement as a Guide for Draft Strategy To skip ahead to our conclusions, click here to read our 2022 fantasy draft strategy. This is a bit different from how we analyzed draft strategy last year, but we believe this is a better methodology. This helps you build a draft strategy by making the best possible picks in the moment to set you up to maximize value at your next pick or two. The idea is based on prioritizing positions where the talent drop-off by your next pick or two is the largest. Then, we use a new metric – differential value – to help you determine which positions are the best to take at each draft pick. ![]() For example, comparing the points above replacement for the best RB, WR, TE, and QB who is typically available at the 10th pick can help you decide which players will contribute the most to your total and your chances of winning. First, we look at the points above replacement level at each position for player’s available at a given pick.In this article we present two separate lines of analysis to help you plan for your upcoming fantasy draft. ![]()
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